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Sunday, June 14, 2020

Simulation Theory - worth your time - sciencenreds

We, humans, are unable to experience the true nature of the universe unfiltered. Our senses and brain can only process a fraction of the world. So we have to use concepts and tools to get to know the true nature of reality. Technological progress has not only expanded our knowledge of the universe but also made us aware of worrying opportunities.


In the future, it could be possible to simulate entire universes. But if this is an option

-how can we know that it hasn't happened already?

-What if we are not creators but creations?

- Is it possible that we are not real and do not even know?


If our current understanding of physics is correct, it is impossible to simulate the entire universe with its trillions and trillions of things. But we don't need that anyway. We only need enough universe to deceive the residents of our simulation and believe that they are real. Who needs billions of galaxies? We only need the space that our subjects can explore. The huge universe could only be a flat projection and they would have no way of knowing it.

What about small things like cells or bacteria? We don't really need them. If you use a microscope, what you see can be created immediately. As with atoms, the chair you are sitting on does not need to be simulated with quadrillion atoms. We only need the outermost layer of it, it could be empty inside until you decide to break it open. Your body may feel filled with bubbly things, but it may be empty until you open it. The minimum requirement for our simulation is only the awareness of our virtual people. Our test subjects just have to think that the simulation is real.

Okay, so are we being simulated? Well, maybe, but there are some conditions that need to be met. Obviously, we have no authority on this issue, so please take everything we say with a grain of salt. Based on a modified version of Nick Bostrom's original simulation argument, we have five assumptions for you. If they are true, dear readers, live in a simulation.


Assumption one :

It is possible to simulate awareness! Nobody knows what consciousness is. As an argument, suppose you could create awareness by simulating a brain. Brains are pretty complex. If you count every interaction between synapses as one operation, your brain will run at approximately ten to the seventeen (10 ^ 17) for one hundred million billion operations per second. Let us assume generously that we need ten to twenty (10 ^ 20) operations to simulate a second of human consciousness. But we don't just want to simulate a human being ... We want to simulate all of human history at once so we can jump around. Let's say we want to simulate two hundred billion people with an average lifespan of fifty years.


    A year has thirty million seconds times fifty years times two hundred billion people times ten times twenty (50 M sec x 50 years x 200 B people x 10 ^ 20) operations. So we need a computer that can handle millions, trillions, trillions, trillions of operations per second. More operations than stars in the observable universe. The computer like this is simply impossible. Until it's not.


Assumption two:

    Technological progress will not stop so quickly. If we assume that technological progress will continue in a similar way as before, there could be cross-galaxy civilizations that will eventually have unlimited computing power. Beings on a technological level that is so advanced that we could hardly distinguish them from gods. A computer that can handle a million trillion, trillion, trillion operations is serious business, but there are actually concepts for computers that can handle it.


    The Matrioshka brain is the theoretical megastructure, made up of billions of parts orbiting a star and feeding on its radiation. A computer of this size would have enough power to simulate thousands, if not millions, of humanities at the same time. Other technologies, such as future high-end quantum computers, can drastically reduce the size, so this may be possible with a structure the size of a city or even smaller. But only if someone is still there to build the computer.


Assumption three :

 Advanced civilizations do not destroy themselves. If there is a point where all civilizations have destroyed themselves, this whole discussion ends here. If you look into space, you can expect a universe full of millions of alien civilizations, but we don't see anyone. The reason could be Great Filters. Large filters are obstacles that life must overcome, such as nuclear war, asteroids, climate change or a black hole generator. If life is inherently self-destructive, there are no simulations.


Assumption four:

    Advanced civilizations want to do simulations. When we speak of posthuman civilizations, we don't know what we are dealing with, we think we know what beings are as powerful as gods want, they are quite arrogant. Imagine the smartest ant in the world living next to an amusement park. She's curious about what people are up to, so try to explain. Unfortunately, the ant just doesn't understand. The concept of roller coasters and standing in snakes and holidays and fun makes no sense to an ant that leads the life of an ant.


It is the same with us and a posthuman being. We are ants compared to them. Carrying out simulations for fun or for science could be an absurdly stupid idea for them. However, if you want to run simulations for whatever reason and the assumptions one, two, three also apply, the probability that you live in a simulation is not zero.


Assumption five :

   If there are many simulations, you are probably in a simulation. If there are simulated civilizations, it is likely that there are many of them. Finally, we assume that posthuman beings have access to practically unlimited computing power. So if you run simulations, it would be convenient to run millions or even billions of them. If there are billions of simulated universes, there are probably billions and trillions of simulated conscious beings. This would mean that the vast majority of all conscious beings that will ever exist are simulated. For every conscious being made of flesh, there are a billion simulated beings. In this case, since we cannot know whether we are being simulated or not, chances are that you are one of the "nine hundred and ninety-nine million nine hundred and ninety-nine thousand and ninety-nine" (999 999) simulated are fairly high. What you see as reality may not be real at all.


They could really ... be simulated. All of this is based on many assumptions that we cannot really test at the moment, so many scientists disagree with this whole thought experiment. So don't burn your house down to test if there are any malfunctions. If you are being simulated and not changing that much for you, you may be on a small planet accelerated by eternal nothing, or simulating in a computer. Their existence does not become more or less scary and bizarre.


We can only hope to live a good life and have a good time. And I hope that if we actually do simulations in a supercomputer, nobody will trip over the power cable. Read on about paradoxes and thought experiments. Even if theories contradict each other, it is worth it because every experiment was once a theory ...

~sciencefreak


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